United Arab Emirates Announce Surprise Withdrawal from OPEC Starting May 1, 2026

The United Arab Emirates surprised the international oil community on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, by announcing their withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance effective May 1. A historic decision driven by "national interest" and the desire to reclaim their energy sovereignty.

This is a diplomatic and energy earthquake. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of the world's largest oil producers, officially announced on Tuesday their departure from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance, which notably includes Russia. The withdrawal will take effect on May 1, 2026, according to a statement from the official news agency Wam.

This surprise departure directly weakens the cartel led by Saudi Arabia, already strained by the successive departures of Qatar (2019), Ecuador (2020), and Angola (2023). It comes amid extreme tensions in the Middle East, where the Israeli-American conflict with Iran has virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's crude oil normally transits.

'National interest' above all

In its statement, Wam justifies this decision by "the long-term strategic and economic vision of the United Arab Emirates as well as the evolution of their energy profile, notably the acceleration of investments in national energy production."

The Emirates, members of OPEC since 1967, recall having "made significant contributions and made even greater sacrifices in the interest of all." But, the agency adds, "the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates."

Concrete translation: Abu Dhabi no longer wishes to be constrained by the production quotas set by OPEC+. Once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and prices stabilize, the Emirates want to be able to pump without limits.

A structural weakening of OPEC

For Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy interviewed by AFP, this withdrawal marks "a major turning point." "Along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE is one of the few members with significant spare capacity—the mechanism by which OPEC exerts its influence on the market."

In the short term, the impact could be limited due to war-related disruptions. But in the long term, the analyst warns, "this will result in a structural weakening of OPEC." The Emirates might be tempted to increase their production, which will raise questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia's role and suggest "a potentially more volatile oil market."

Four million barrels per day

Before the conflict in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates ranked fourth among the 22 OPEC+ producers, behind Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, with about 3.5 million barrels per day. Some sources close to the Ministry of Energy mention a real capacity close to 4 million.

The UAE's withdrawal, coupled with geopolitical tensions, could permanently reshape the global energy map. It remains to be seen whether other members will follow this example, or whether Riyadh will manage to maintain the cohesion of an already battered cartel.