Trump and Xi Seal Trade Truce in Asia: Between Strategic Détente and Political Calculations

Thursday, October 30, 2025 — On the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping signed a provisional agreement partially reducing tariffs imposed on China. A truce with major economic and geopolitical implications, in a context of exacerbated rivalry. An Asian Trip Marked by Negotiation Visiting Asia for several days, Donald Trump held numerous diplomatic meetings, from Kuala Lumpur to Busan, to conclude what he presents as a “great success”: a temporary trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting, held on Thursday, October 30, in South Korea, marks a pause in the trade war that the two powers have been waging for years. According to the terms of the agreement, Washington will lower the average tariff rate on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, after reaching an unprecedented peak of 130% last April. Despite this reduction, China remains one of the most taxed countries by the United States, behind India and Brazil. The agreement, valid for one year and renewable, therefore resembles less a reconciliation than a tactical de-escalation. Economic Compromises: Soybeans, Rare Earths, and Strategic Industries One of the central points of the agreement concerns rare earths, metals essential for advanced technologies. Beijing has agreed to delay by one year the implementation of export restrictions on these materials, over which it holds a near-global monopoly. In exchange, Washington renounces imposing the additional 100% tariffs it threatened to implement as early as November 1. China has also committed to resuming the purchase of American soybeans, at a rate of 25 million tons per year, a decision highly anticipated by American farmers severely affected by Chinese retaliatory measures since 2018. Other relief measures, such as the suspension of American investigations into Chinese maritime industries and the cessation of taxes on maritime freight, are also included in the compromise. For Trump, these concessions are a major political asset: they offer economic respite to his rural and industrial bases while allowing him to proclaim a diplomatic success abroad. Between Strategic Rivalry and Forced Cooperation While both leaders welcome the “constructive” tone of their discussions, the geopolitical reality remains very tense. This truce does not erase the deep structural disputes between Washington and Beijing: technological rivalry, the Taiwan issue, the race for artificial intelligence, and competition for critical resources. U.S. President Donald Trump used the meeting to discuss an unexpected security aspect: bilateral cooperation against fentanyl, a synthetic opioid largely produced from Chinese chemical precursors. Beijing promised to strengthen its controls to “block the flow of precursors entering the United States via Mexico and Canada,” according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The two presidents also discussed Donald Trump's “global peace plan,” including a section on the war in Ukraine. A signal that American economic diplomacy is now accompanied by asserted geostrategic ambitions. An Agreement Primarily Political The Sino-American trade truce is set to last until December 2026, the scheduled date for Xi Jinping's next visit to the United States for the G20 summit. But behind the optimistic declarations, many observers see it primarily as a political maneuver. With crucial elections just months away, Trump seeks to reassure markets and restore his image as a businessman capable of “winning deals.” On the Chinese side, Beijing gains a reduction in economic pressure without abandoning its power strategy. By suspending its controls on rare earths, Xi Jinping gains time to reorganize his industry and consolidate his influence over the global supply chain. A Fragile Truce in a Prolonged War The Busan meeting did not end the trade war, but it allowed for a diplomatic ceasefire between two economic giants whose interdependence remains undeniable. Markets, from Wall Street to Shanghai, welcomed this détente, but uncertainties persist: American protectionism, rising technological tensions, and the competing ambitions of the two nations on the world stage suggest further confrontations. The “trade peace” signed in Asia is therefore a fragile truce, more pragmatic than ideological. For both Trump and Xi, it offers a breathing space, but neither seems ready to abandon the battle for global economic leadership.