Negotiations, Manipulations, and Tensions at a Crucial Moment in the Transition

As the Haitian transition approaches its most sensitive deadlines, fault lines between institutions are becoming increasingly visible. While the country remains confronted with persistent structural insecurity, the past week offered the contrasting spectacle of a security apparatus demonstrating its strength and a political apparatus bogged down in hesitations, negotiations, and power calculations.

On the security front, the Director General of the Haitian National Police, Vladimir Paraison, has now emerged as one of the most visible and influential actors in the security apparatus. Multiplying media appearances with a confident and coherent discourse, he accompanies his statements with tangible results on the ground. Since taking office in August 2025, operations conducted under his command have led to significant advances in several strategic areas: the recapture of Solino, progress in Pacot, downtown Port-au-Prince, Croix-des-Bouquets, Delmas, and Canaan. His leadership has also helped stabilize Kenscoff and curb the expansion of armed groups in this sensitive area.

In a context where several of his predecessors struggled to convince both by their discourse and their results, this rise in power of the current PNH leadership is redrawing institutional balances and strengthening the weight of the police institution in the restoration of security.

But while the police are making operational gains, the political process continues to bog down. The Provisional Electoral Council announced the postponement of its electoral calendar, citing the need to revise it. The reason: the obligation to amend the electoral decree to incorporate provisions relating to the referendum. This reconfiguration now makes it almost impossible to hold elections in August, as initially envisioned.

This new postponement revives doubts about the real capacity and willingness of transitional authorities to meet their calendar commitments. For beyond the technical constraints invoked, this slippage fuels suspicions of a transition that some actors might be tempted to prolong.

At the Prime Minister's Office, the official discourse remains focused on restoring security. The Prime Minister affirms his desire to continue efforts to restore order to create the necessary conditions for organizing credible, free, and inclusive elections as soon as possible. A position that, in principle, seems difficult to dispute.

However, behind this official line, more discreet tensions are stirring behind the scenes of power. Persistent rumors suggest the desire of certain actors close to the Prime Minister's Office to make changes within the CEP, or even in the high command of the National Police. If confirmed, such maneuvers would raise serious questions about the real motivations behind these initiatives.