End of the Fiscal Year: What Assessment Against Announced Prospects?

As the fiscal year draws to a close, it's time for an assessment for the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). Beyond the figures presented and official announcements, a central question arises: to what extent have the prospects for economic recovery, budgetary stabilization, and structural reforms been translated into concrete actions?

The MEF had placed this fiscal year under the banner of rigor and modernization of public management. Announced priorities included broadening the tax base, improving customs revenue collection, combating fraud and smuggling, and financing social programs and infrastructure. The objective was twofold: to strengthen state capacities and send signals of confidence to investors and international partners.

However, as economist Enomy Germain points out, the reality on the ground shows results far below ambitions. Budgetary planning has been unstable, with three decrees adopted during the same fiscal year, including a final revision one week before closing, undermining the credibility of public choices. Budget execution remained insufficient: only 56.4% of planned expenditures were committed, and the execution rate for public investments reached only 25.4%. This deficit of action reflects a lack of strategic vision and an inability to reorient investment towards regions less affected by insecurity, thereby limiting the impact on territorial development.

On the macroeconomic front, indicators confirm the decline: a GDP contraction of 3.1%, inflation at 31.1%, persistent unemployment, and nearly 50% of the population facing food insecurity. The trade balance, in deficit and deteriorating, illustrates the difficulties of an external sector affected by declining exports and rising imports. Even the banking sector, despite apparent profitability, shows its limits: cost compression masks the weakness of banking products and the potential restriction of credit supply, hindering real economic recovery.

Certainly, progress has been made in the digitalization of certain services, the mobilization of internal resources, and the establishment of consultation frameworks with donors. But structural constraints remain strong: a largely informal economy, low tax pressure, an administration vulnerable to corruption, and permanent political instability.

At the end of this fiscal year, the country thus faces a delicate equation. The next budget will not only have to reflect a clear strategic vision but also send more credible and concrete signals to restore confidence. As Enomy Germain reminds us, no sustainable recovery is possible without the prior restoration of security and an effective redeployment of investment.

Ultimately, the end of the fiscal year is not just a series of statistics, but a fundamental question: how to transform economic and financial ambitions into real levers of development, capable of positively impacting the daily lives of the population and pulling the Haitian economy out of its prolonged decline?